Secular Stagnation - The US and Korean Economies -

Abstract

This paper discusses the technical patterns behind the discussion of secular stagnation in the US economy since 2000. The measure of TFP growth we use is a single weighted average of capital and labor productivity growth. This allows us to see the long-run changes in each productivity growth that affect TFP growth. We also use the Korean economy as a catch-up economy to see if the technical patterns of the US economy are repeated in the Korean economy. In terms of TFP growth, the 1970s is the worst period for both countries. TFP growth picks up after the 1980s in the US economy and after 1997 in the Korean economy. However, a technical pattern similar to the 1970s reappears after the 2000s in the US economy and after the 2010s in the Korean economy.