Deep Learning-Based Maximum Temperature Forecasting Assisted with Meta-Learning for Hyperparameter Optimization

Abstract

Time series forecasting of meteorological variables such as daily temperature has recently drawn considerable attention from researchers to address the limitations of traditional forecasting models. However, a middle-range (e.g., 5-20 days) forecasting is an extremely challenging task to get reliable forecasting results from a dynamical weather model. Nevertheless, it is challenging to develop and select an accurate time-series prediction model because it involves training various distinct models to find the best among them. In addition, selecting an optimum topology for the selected models is important too. The accurate forecasting of maximum temperature plays a vital role in human life as well as many sectors such as agriculture and industry. The increase in temperature will deteriorate the highland urban heat, especially in summer, and have a significant influence on people's health. We applied meta-learning principles to optimize the deep learning network structure for hyperparameter optimization. In particular, the genetic algorithm (GA) for meta-learning was used to select the optimum architecture for the network used. The dataset was used to train and test three different models, namely the artificial neural network (ANN), recurrent neural network (RNN), and long short-term memory (LSTM). Our results demonstrate that the hybrid model of an LSTM network and GA outperforms other models for the long lead time forecasting. Specifically, LSTM forecasts have superiority over RNN and ANN for 15-day-ahead in summer with the root mean square error (RMSE) value of 2.719 (degrees C).