기후변화가 국내 목재시장에 미치는 영향 분석

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to assess the impacts of climate changes on the coniferous and broadleaf timber markets. In order to assess these impacts, an equilibrium displacement model is developed in this paper. The substitution between imported and domestically produced timber is considered and several scenarios regarding the changes in timber production caused by climate changes are reflected in the model. Simulation results indicate that climate changes will result in a small decrease in the quantity of timber that is domestically produced and relatively large increase in the equilibrium price. These results imply that climate changes have a positive influence on the total revenue of domestic timber production.