기후변화와 이상기후가 열대과일 수입에 미치는 영향 분석

Abstract

This study aims to measure whether climate change and abnormal climate affect agricultural product imports, focusing on tropical fruit crops. A panel gravity model based on import performance in the form of 'multiple origins to single destination' was constructed to analyze the fruit imports from major importing countries to Korea from 1996 to 2018. Methodologies verified in other previous studies, such as the panel tobit model proposed in the study, the panel Poisson model, and the Poisson pseudo-most likelihood estimation method, were used. As the increase in temperature at the origin had a negative effect on the import of tropical fruits in Korea, and the increase in precipitation at the origin also had a negative effect on the import of tropical fruits. The higher the intensity of the abnormal climate at the starting point, the more negatively the import of tropical fruits in Korea was. Among the natural disasters at the origin, drought negatively affected the import of tropical fruits, and the natural disasters at the rest of the origin did not significantly affect the imports of tropical fruits.