토양수분모형을 이용한 미래 주요 밭작물 소비수량 및 관개용수량 전망

Abstract

The impacts of climate change on upland crops is great significance for water resource planning, estimating crop water demand and irrigation scheduling. The objective of this study is to predict upland crop evapotranspiration, effective rainfall and net irrigation requirement for upland under climate change,and changes in the temporal trends in South Korea. The changes in consumptive use and net irrigation requirement in the six upland crops, such asSoybeans, Maize, Potatoes, Red Peppers, Chinese Cabbage (spring and fall) were determined based on the soil moisture model using historicalmeteorological data and climate change data from the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The results of this study showed that theaverage annual upland crop evapotranspiration and net irrigation requirement during the growing period for upland crops would increase persistently inthe future, and were projected to increase more in RCP 8.5 than those in RCP 4.5 scenario, while effective rainfall decreased. This study is significant, asit provides baseline information on future plan of water resources management for upland crops related to climate variability and change.