Prediction of three-dimensional shift in the distribution of largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) under climate change in South Korea

Abstract

Predicting the shift of invasive species distribution in response to climate change is essential for ecological risk assessment. In this study, the distribution of invasive largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) was predicted from 2016 to 2085 in the Han River basin of South Korea using HadGEM3-RA based climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios). A random forest model was developed using largemouth bass occurrence data and environmental variables (temperature, precipitation, flow rate, water quality, elevation, and slope) for five years (2011-2015). The annual mean temperature was the second most contributing variable after elevation. The occurrence of largemouth bass in the Han River basin was expected to increase in the future with increasing annual mean temperature, especially after the 2060 s (2056-2065) in the RCP 8.5 scenario. The latitudinal, longitudinal, and altitudinal shifts of largemouth bass distribution were ex-pected to be-1.76 km, 4.19 km, and 9.07 m per 10 years under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively, indicating a gradual southeastward shift to higher locations. Given that invasive fish can disturb the habitat of endemic species, three-dimensional distribution shift under climate change should be considered for the ecological risk assessment of invasive species.